HuguesJohnson.com Mobile - The Abridged Story of Mercator Software

March 7, 2000: $149.875

3/7/2000 - NASDAQ: MCTR - $149.875

For months our stock rose at a breakneck pace. It was all the buzz of the office, a bigger deal than the new identity even. When we broke $100 it was thrilling, when we broke $120 it was unbelievable, $130.. $140.. until we maxed-out at $149.875.

Let's do some quick math here – on March 7, 2000 we had 22.4 million outstanding shares so we were worth $3,357,200,000. We had no idea where it was going to stop, $200 a share didn't seem impossible even if it seemed completely unreasonable.

Of course I didn't own any stock at the time. I had a bunch of stock options at $30 but didn't think to cash them out. I was probably waiting for the price to break $150. I wasn't the only one, I can only think of one single programmer on my team who had the foresight to dump all his shares when the stock first surpassed $90.

Three days later the NASDAQ would hit its all-time high followed by a two and a half year descent.

Despite positive earning reports in the coming months, our stock went into a free fall. It's amazing how closely our stock followed the NASDAQ trends. Unlike the dot-com companies we were actually making money, not enough to warrant the stock price but we weren't a black hole for cash like many of them. Still our price was horribly inflated and we were due for a massive correction.

4/24/2000 - NASDAQ: MCTR - $40.25

I finally understand the appeal of that "Deal or No Deal" show. It's the exact force that drove the dot-com bubble and burst. Someone hands you a briefcase, an object of minimal value on its own. You pick a few numbers at random and suddenly that suitcase is worth $250,000. Sure you could sell it for a tremendous profit but you're obviously so good at picking that maybe you can get $1,000,000 for it. So you pick a few more numbers and now your suitcase is only worth $120,000. How can that be?! It was worth more than double that a minute ago, if you work that magic you had the first time you just know it'll go back up. So you keep picking away, the value of the suitcase keeps dropping. Maybe it jumps up a little bit once, but it never climbs back to its high. By the time you're done you're happy to take $50 for it. It's $50 you didn't have in your pocket in the morning, but you'll spend the rest of your life knowing you could have had so much more if you just knew when to quit.