Scenario 1: Two Console War Continues (2/2)

Without the pressure from Sony, Sega and Nintendo continue the one-on-one battle at their own pace. Sega targets a holiday 1995 release for the Saturn instead of prematurely releasing it before software was available. Nintendo and Sony continue their profitable partnership by jointly developing the Nintendo 64, which is now CD based. They look to spring 1996 for the system launch. Although more advanced than the Saturn the competition is close. Sega focuses on their line of sports games which is what kept them afloat in the Genesis vs. Super Nintendo war.

The Saturn vs. Nintendo 64 battle continues until the next millennium. Without Sony's overpowering of the game market there would be less incentive for Nintendo and Sega to accelerate new systems. The early 2000s see the Sega Dreamcast and Nintendo Gamecube hit store shelves. OK, the system names would be different and stuff but the technologies are roughly the same. Again, the Gamecube is jointly developed by Nintendo and Sony but likely uses DVD discs.

Today we'd essentially be seeing the end of the Gamecube vs. Dreamcast feud. Late 2006 could have seen launches of new Sega and Nintendo/Sony offerings. The rise of high-definition televisions forcing each company to consider HD capable consoles.

Would Microsoft still have entered the gaming market in this scenario? Sony was the first company to prove that an "outsider" could conquer the game hardware market. NEC, Panasonic, and Philips all failed. Still, I suspect the temptation would be too great for Microsoft to resist. Somewhere in the early zeros they'd make a run at it and probably see roughly the same level of success that they did in the real world.